Civ4 AI Survivor Season 3: Game Eight Alternate Histories

(Note : "A" column tracks the number of war declarations initiated by the AI, "D" the number of times the AI is declared upon, "F" the points for finish ranking, and "K" the number of kills.)

TheOneAndOnlyAtesh: When De Gaulle of all leaders is the overarching king of the hill, you know you have a unique situation on your hands. These results undersold the true dominance of this much maligned misfit. He had an 80% playoff advancement rate, rarely backdoored his 2nd place finishes, and only died once when he was crippled on Turn 54 by a surprise Freddie invasion (yet he still remained a relevant player to the bitter end). One would think that this would be a more open-ended setup, as all the low peaceweights had perfect access to the feeding frenzy that was the centrally located Hatshepsut and Frederick, but De Gaulle was absolutely dominant here, managing to back up his Livestream shocker and then some.

Leader Dynamics

Two factors separated De Gaulle from his evil brethren. Firstly, De Gaulle had the best land, the most space, and the best neighbor situation, while his rivals were lacking in at least one of those categories. More importantly, De Gaulle was the only leader who could successfully juggle both his military and economic priorities. To touch on the others: Shaka and Napoleon were strong military leaders, but their suspect economic management led to many games where they had conquered over half the map yet were unable to convert into a win because they were too far behind in tech. Pacal had the opposite issue, demonstrating his Financial tech prowess but collapsing if a leader so much as breathed towards his direction. Boudicca was actually the most impressive of all the seven leaders here, as she had a lot of scrappy performances considering her awful jungle start and the removal of Deity starting techs for these replays which left her with the dreaded Hunting/Mysticism combo. However, the terrible quality and quantity of her land meant it was always an uphill battle for the Celtic queen.

Speaking of which, the relationship between De Gaulle and Boudicca was the embodiment of true love. It was literally love at first sight - these two leaders were Pleased with each other from Turn 0 and were thus hardwired to never betray each other. As time went on, some combination of religious bonds and mutual military struggles would further strengthen the bond between the two lovers, with the result that DE GAULLE AND BOUDICCA NEVER FOUGHT. I must emphasize this: there were nearly 300 wars over the course of these twenty games, yet not a single one was between De Gaulle and Boudicca, despite the two being neighbors. This was a massive advantage for the two, as they were the only leaders to have a reliable ally in this setup. (Interestingly, De Gaulle did murder Boudicca in the Actual Game. Sorry to all the hopeless romantics.)

Meanwhile, the Shaka-Napoleon relationship was noteworthy for the complete opposite reason. Most games saw the two engage in a vicious deathmatch which could take place at any time from the first war declaration to a post-Turn 300 showdown. Shaka emerged the victor more often for a few reasons. First, the Zulu king had more high-quality land, including a mini-peninsula to his west that he could settle uncontested. Meanwhile, Nappy was relegated to a colder spot in the corner. Moreover, Shaka's proximity to Pacal and Hatty gave him better overall expansion prospects, while Nappy's neighbors (post the ripping apart of Freddie) were De Gaulle and Shaka, leaving him with the Catch-22 of either attacking one of the two strongest leaders in the map or having to march halfway across the map, leaving his mainland terribly exposed. Shaka was thus much bigger and far less likely to have his entire army in lalaland once it was time for his showdown against Napoleonic France. Finally, Shaka frankly proved to be a better fighter. There were multiple instances of Shaka straight up mowing down a Napoleon who was equal in land, power, and technology. This set really left me wondering if Nappy is a viable AI Survivor leader.

Unfortunately, the inability for the two men to coexist caused them to get so worn out by fighting that by the time one leader was dead, the other was left permanently behind a Pacal or a De Gaulle or even a Boudicca who had at least 100 more turns to peacefully build. One generally had to take out the other in order to advance, but their showdown was typically for second place.

Although Hatty and Freddie were predictably toast in these matchups, they were both tough nuts to crack, the former due to her excellent land and teching and the latter due to his more militaristic emphasis. It almost always took a combined effort to take down these two. This factored greatly into the high war count, which also served to drag the overall game pace down. However, despite the endless conflict, there was great potential for a leader to double his/her territory in the blink of an eye. This did lead to some excellent economic performances like De Gaulle's impressive Turn 304 Spaceship win in Game 15.

Defensive Pacts and Alliances, Oh My!

One unique aspect of this Alternate Histories set was the relatively high prevalence and importance of Defensive Pacts. This was especially so with De Gaulle and Boudicca, with the two lovers frequently stonewalling the Western warmongers with such alliances. Defensive Pact-triggered wars, most of which were a Gaullic-Celtic agreement, took place in nearly half of these replays, and they often ended with the spectacular collapse of the leader on the wrong side of the 2v1, usually Shaka or Napoleon.

This set also had an abnormally high five Diplomatic victories, all of which went to the deserving winner. 4/5 of the Diplo finishes involved one of the two lovers electing each other as World Leader. Otherwise, it was pretty much a coin flip whether a game ended in a Domination or a Spaceship finish, although I would say that a standard game would end in a De Gaulle Spaceship victory. In what should come as absolutely zero surprise, the sole Cultural victory was Hatshepsut's outlier Game 14 victory, but even that came close to being a Domination win.

How Typical Was The Actual Game?

9.5/10. The Actual Game pretty much followed the typical game script to the T, with the low peaceweights blasting Frederick into another galaxy by Turn 150 or so, then devouring Hatshepsut, then finally watching De Gaulle coast to victory by virtue of being the biggest and least insane of the bunch. The Livestream had nearly every pattern identified in the Alternate Histories: Pacal's poor military management coming back to bite him, Boudicca being entertaining but ultimately flaming out, Napoleon being disappointing, and Shaka getting 2nd place. If I had to pinpoint an anomaly, it was Pacal somehow surviving despite Shaka's strength. In the replays, a strong Shaka almost always meant a dead Pacal.

Delving deeper into the individual results:

Leader Summaries

De Gaulle of France
Wars Declared: 47
Wars Declared Upon: 24
Survival Percentage: 95%
Finishes: 9 Firsts, 7 Seconds (59 points)
Kills: 18
Overall Score: 77 points

Truth be told, this was a dream setup for the French WWII hero. I had already mentioned his amazing land and neighbor situation, but other contributing factors included:

1. The peaceweight split: 0, 0, 1, 2, 2, 8, 9. De Gaulle's meme peaceweight of 0 is usually a liability, but in this map it was an asset.
2. De Gaulle's backstabbing nature was perfect for this field. While other leaders started wars, De Gaulle finished them - and that ultimately wins games.
3. He was the only warmonger who could consistently maintain a functioning economy.

If there was one ding against De Gaulle's position, it was that he could occasionally be caught without metals in an early conflict against Freddie. Most of De Gaulle's bad performances stemmed from some combination of Freddie seizing 1-2 cities in a copperdec and inopportune barbarian city spawns permanently gimping his game, like in the one game he died. In that aspect, he was lucky to have Freddie instead of, say, Shaka directly to his west. Nevertheless, with an 80% playoff advancement and a 95% survival rate, this was a very impressive set from this leader, one that suggests that perhaps he is not as incompetent as the AI Survivor community might believe.

Best Performance: A Turn 304 Spaceship win is Financial level teching.

Worst Performance: He was mostly ineffectual in Game 14, and it was no coincidence that this turned out to be the one game the high peaceweights made it out in one piece.

De Troll Award: His only truly undeserved playoff spot came in Game 4, where despite Hatshepsut of all leaders sacking Paris, De Gaulle still came back to achieve a Runner Up of the "everyone else sucked even more" variety.

Shaka of the Zulus
Wars Declared: 76
Wars Declared Upon: 20
Survival Percentage: 75%
Finishes: 3 Firsts, 6 Seconds (27 points)
Kills: 23
Overall Score: 50 points

There was a significant middle class of leaders after De Gaulle, but Shaka was clearly the best of the bunch, his 2nd place showing on the Livestream proving to be the default outcome. It helped that he was the best fighter with the easiest access to the non-Frederick military targets. The Mayan territory to his south, with its highly developed and wonder-filled cities, were particularly juicy prizes for Shaka. His best games saw him run over Napoleon and/or Freddie before turning his attention to the affluent yet easily conquerable global South. From there, he had an outside shot at getting enough territory before De Gaulle was too far ahead to be stopped. In my opinion, these results overstated his true strength, as all three of his wins came in the first five replays. According to my eye test, they really were lucky best-case scenarios for the Zulu leader. Game 1, for example, saw him reach Domination a mere few turns before De Gaulle's Spaceship would have landed, while Game 5 saw Shaka savvily turn on the Culture slider to secure just enough to once again edge out De Gaulle for the win.

Evidence from the following games showcased some major hurdles to victory for the Zulu. First, his teching was poor due to overexpansion and excessive fighting, and Shaka found himself on the wrong side of a "Rifle vs. Mech" scenario multiple times. With the abundance of conquest opportunities, this may not have mattered that much, except that a far more advanced leader, usually De Gaulle but sometimes Boudicca or Pacal, had usually conquered enough territory to prevent any feasible Domination victory. Finally, even if there was a weak target who could have vaulted Shaka past the domination limit, that leader would often sign a Defensive Pact with a much stronger leader to prevent Shaka from making any progress. The last 15 games were a much better indicator of his average-case potential. Even his likelihood to achieve 2nd place feels somewhat inflated here, as in two games (12, 20), Shaka was only able to hold on for 2nd place because the UN had ended the game before a runaway De Gaulle could kill him. (These were thrown playoff spots by Boudicca) Shaka clearly proved himself as one of the best warmongers, but his weaknesses were exposed in what should have been an excellent setup for him, and I was a little bit disappointed in his output here.

Best Performance: Game 3 was the only game where Shaka's victory was never in doubt from beginning to end.

Worst Performance: Getting conquered by Hatshepsut in Game 14, his one First To Die performance.

Caveman Award: Game 19, where it was Turn 360 and Shaka had somehow not yet discovered Assembly Line.

Boudica of the Celts
Wars Declared: 75
Wars Declared Upon: 9
Survival Percentage: 70%
Finishes: 3 Firsts, 2 Seconds (19 points)
Kills: 10
Overall Score: 29 points

Although Boudicca's land was awful, her diplomatic situation helped compensate; she faced less than 0.5 wars per game. To reiterate, Boudicca and her northern neighbor De Gaulle did not fight a single instance, leaving the Celtic queen free to frolic in the blood of German and Egyptian soldiers. Boudicca's best games tended to coincide with Hatty's worst. Her Game 7 win was aided by Hatty sacrificing eastward expansion in order to attack Pacal on Turn 63, while her Game 8 win saw Hatty lose her third city in an unlucky dice roll against the barbarians. Meanwhile, her third win in Game 11 came when Hatty veered a bit too hard on the Cultural gameplan, completely neglected expansion, and got solo-conquered by the Celts. In order to have a shot at winning, Boudicca needed to claim an Ivory spot in the contested Egyptian-Celtic land; naturally, she secured that spot in all three of her wins.

Unfortunately, in most games, Boudicca's proximity to Creative Hatty caused her to get boxed in her jungle-choked land early, giving her room for only five or so quality cities. In such games, she was relegated to the decoy role, sending hordes upon hordes of Gallic Warriors at her enemies to hamper their games. Boudicca's overly aggressive nature also did not help matters, as she had a tendency to launch pointless cross-map excursions that accomplished nothing and only came back to bite her late in games. However, she was not as maniacally aggressive as her 75 offensive wars may have suggested: that number was quite inflated by Defensive Pact triggered conflicts.

Whether she was a girlboss, De Gaulle's lover, or a "Disposable Woman" plot cliche, I was quite impressed by Boudicca's playing. All of her playoff-worthy performances saw her do everything she could to claw out of her tough land position, and her economic management was surprisingly competent given her circumstances. Put her in De Gaulle's starting position, and I believe she would have been the dominant leader. Her trollish behavior (sometimes towards herself, like in Games 12 and 20) always made her an entertaining presence, and I found myself generally rooting for Boudicca in these replays. Wang Kon may be the Troll King, but I think Boudicca has staked a claim to the "Troll Queen" moniker.

Best Performance: Straight up murdering an equally strong Pacal in Game 11 to secure her victory.

Worst Performance: Boudicca launched a pointless cross map excursion against Shaka in Game 2, only serving to wreck her own game in the process.

A Better Love Story Than Twilight Award: In Game 6, Boudicca somehow convinced Napoleon to sign peace when she had one city left, signed a Defensive Pact with De Gaulle, and then, when Nappy came back to finish her off, she watched from the dead as her beloved laid the smackdown on his French compatriot.

Pacal of the Mayans
Wars Declared: 28
Wars Declared Upon: 33
Survival Percentage: 45%
Finishes: 2 Firsts, 4 Seconds (18 points)
Kills: 6
Overall Score: 24 points

If anyone was wondering how a low peaceweight Hatshepsut would have fared in this map, well, here is your answer. Pacal's problem was that he was a piss poor fighter in a world where one had to fight. Many games saw him try to tech in peace, build every wonder in the sun, and then crumple the instant a warmonger came knocking on his door. Pacal lost multiple games (1, 10, 11, 12 especially) due to avoiding Rifling for too long, and there were also games (2, 20) where Hatshepsut of all leaders ran him over.

Pacal's pacifistic tendencies also worked against him diplomatically. Since he opted out of wars, he was unable to build up mutual military struggle bonuses with the rest of the field, making him into a later dogpile target once Freddie and Hatty were yeeted out of the game as "Pleased" was not nearly enough to keep him safe from the likes of Shaka and Napoleon. Pacal also had difficulties spreading his religion, as Hatty, his main religious rival, was more effective at spreading it due to her central position and general commitment to proselytizing. To win, Pacal either had to cross his fingers that he was left alone for a long time (Game 4) or grow a pair and do some conquering himself (Game 16). His 2nd places were shockingly uncompetitive considering his supposed economic prowess, as he was just lucky to not be attacked. Much is made about how Financial/Alive is the best trait pairing in the game. Considering Pacal's 45% survival rate despite his relatively friendly diplomatic field, he did not do a great job at the "Alive" part.

Best Performance: Game 16, where Pacal demonstrated what he could have done with even an ounce of military competence and initiative.

Worst Performance: Getting run over super early by Shaka in Game 5 to garner himself one of three non-Frederick First To Die performances in this set.

Angry Pacal Award: Throwing a likely spaceship win in Game 9 by attacking a much more militarily stronger De Gaulle in the late game.

Napoleon of France
Wars Declared: 50
Wars Declared Upon: 39
Survival Percentage: 30%
Finishes: 2 Firsts, 0 Seconds (10 points)
Kills: 13
Overall Score: 23 points

This set was an awful, awful look for Napoleon Bonaparte. With such a favorable diplomatic position, he should have done far better than two wins, no other playoff appearances, and a 30% survival rate. I even ran these games without Deity starting techs, which should have been a major boon for Nappy and his Agriculture/Wheel combination. The Little Corporal's predicament was similar to Shaka's: his poor economic execution made it so that even with successful conquests, he was unable to do much of note. Unlike Shaka, however, the self-proclaimed emperor was not particularly competent at the military side of things. Too often, he would throw random darts at his enemies and watch as more sound military strategists reaped the rewards of his efforts. Like in the Livestream, there was a constant pattern of Nappy putting in the most effort in his conquests yet garnering the least reward.

As it turned out, his Copper resource was a poison pill. Frequently, Nappy would waste time and energy bashing his Axes against Freddie's walls before another leader, usually De Gaulle, would swoop in with Catapults and seize all of Germany for himself, leaving Nappy empty handed. Making matters worse was that after Freddie's demise, Nappy had to walk across the map to have any easy targets, which continued the cycle of expending the most energy on a conquest while others reaped the rewards. Such ventures also left him vulnerable to a Shaka attack at the worst possible time. In the rarer cases where he had military successes, he still ended up suiciding into the game runaway and for whatever reason was just not as resilient as Shaka.

Speaking of which, another massive hurdle for Nappy was the Zulu menace to his south. Shaka continuously spanked the French emperor over and over again. My speculation is that Nappy's "boldness" score, i.e. his extremely high willingness to fight suicidal battles, was a major factor in his military incompetence, as I saw Nappy frequently lose his entire army launching ill-advised attacks and then get cleaned up afterwards in a real life historical parallel. A successful Napoleon game, unsurprisingly, required that Shaka falter in some way, allowing the French to fill the void (Napoleon also had to get most of Germany). In his Game 2 win, Boudicca dragged Shaka down with a troll cross-map war, while his Game 18 win saw Shaka uncharacteristically avoid Rifling for too long (sometimes ultra-militaristic leaders like to go down the Grenadier line instead), leaving him easy pickings for once. Ultimately, Nappy had no fallback option other than "fling soldiers and hope for the best", for he lacked Boudicca's ability to make allies, Shaka's easy access to conquests, and Pacal's economic prowess. Napoleon has had better sets, so I am not completely writing him off, but it is safe to say that his overall capabilities are below average.

Best Performance: I guess his Game 18 win did not rely on any Troll Queen shenanigans.

Worst Performance: Nappy died one turn after Freddie in Game 20, getting solo conquered by a smaller Shaka in one of the most poorly executed wars I have ever witnessed from a warmonger.

Waterloo Award:

Hatshepsut of Egypt
Wars Declared: 11
Wars Declared Upon: 100
Survival Percentage: 5%
Finishes: 1 First, 0 Seconds (5 points)
Kills: 3
Overall Score: 8 points

Yes, Hatty was seriously attacked ONE HUNDRED TIMES - that is a record that I do not think will ever be broken. That Hatty was able to pull off one victory was miraculous, considering this hostile world she was stuck in. She tried her best, consistently becoming one of the strongest leaders in the game after the first 100 turns. However, she would face invasion after invasion after invasion after invasion after invasion until it was too much for her to bear. I will say, Hatty did an impressive job defending herself in these games and even found some offensive success in her own right. For example, Hatty partitioned Pacal with Shaka in Game 5, coming extremely close to holding on for a victory before Shaka attacked her one too many times. In her one miracle victory, Hatty executed a perfectly timed attack on Shaka while his armies were deep in Napoleonic France. That extra territory proved crucial in helping her hold off the continuous barrage of invaders until she was too advanced to take down. I do wish Hatty had kept the aggression train going and won by Domination, but Hatty is Hatty, so of course she cashed in with the sole Cultural victory in the set.

If two map factors were slightly different, I think Hatty could have gutted out a couple more wins in this set despite the 2v5 disparity. First, it would have helped if she had a better ally than Freddie. In most games, the Germans were already gone by Turn 140, leaving the Egyptians in a hopeless position. Secondly, had De Gaulle been replaced by a warmonger who can plot at Pleased, she might have had a little more recourse. In many cases, De Gaulle, who literally could not attack anyone else, would march his massive army down South to take on an exhausted Hatty. Although she could usually withstand Shaka or Pacal or Boudicca, a De Gaulle attack time and time again proved to be the straw that broke the camel's back. If, say, Ragnar or Stalin were in De Gaulle's spot, perhaps there would have actually been some games where the low peaceweights bickered amongst themselves while Hatty happily teched or cultured away in peace.

Best Performance: Her best game outside of her victory (which was one of the most well played games I have ever seen from a single leader) came in Game 20, when she came extremely close to conquering Pacal. Unfortunately, instead of pressing on to Mutal, she marched her entire army to auto-raze a tiny Antarctic barb outpost, completely stymying her momentum. Had she pressed her advantage I think she could have had a second win.

Worst Performance: Wasting too much time on cultural pursuits and neglecting her expansion in Game 11.

Troll Queen Award:

Frederick of Germany
Wars Declared: 14
Wars Declared Upon: 76
Survival Percentage: 5%
Finishes: 0 Firsts, 1 Second (2 points)
Kills: 0
Overall Score: 2 points

Being in a central position surrounded by Napoleon, Shaka, and De Gaulle, Freddie had very few prospects, and I was shocked that he was able to score a single top two finish behind Hatty's singular Game 14 victory. That game saw the other leaders opt to attack a runaway Hatty instead, giving Freddie the room to grow strong enough to serve as Hatty's bodyguard - had Hatty not won a quick Culture victory, he likely would have conquered De Gaulle. In all fairness, Freddie did play well in that game, and that strong performance was instrumental for Hatty's win. This was not a fun time for Freddie, but the normally inert German leader at least tried his best, drawing some blood against one of his French enemies multiple times. Unfortunately, due to his central position, Freddie's fate was to serve as hors d'oeuvre for the rabid bloodthirsty hounds who surrounded him.

Best Performance: Freddie did somewhat earn his Game 14 Runner Up finish.

Worst Performance: Getting shredded by the extremely early Turn 120 in Game 7.

Conclusions

To be frank, these results shine a telling light on hyper-warmongers. For leaders like Napoleon and Shaka, this was one of the best setups they could have asked for, and yet they still missed the mark more often than not. The verdict on Pacal is equally clear, but for the opposite reason, as although he is one of the best economic leaders in Civ IV, we can also see why he is so inconsistent at times: he is nearly as incompetent militarily as he is good financially, and he melts in any conflict where he does not have a tech lead. With this ragtag bunch of crazies, that just did not fly. Pacal truly did not deserve to make his Championship run, and this season helped establish him as one of the villains of Civ IV (although his reputation has certainly improved as time went on). No matter what happened, this was an entertaining set to run with a rather amusing final result.